What People Say?Different people with different perspectives

Hugo Chavez, president and dictator of Venezuela, claims to be the reincarnation of Simon Bolivar, the liberator of a large swath of  South America in the 19th century. His pseudo-socialist Bolivarian revolution aims to restore the glory of the Gran Colombia, a republic which briefly encompassed present day Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama as well as parts of other countries. Chavez has repeatedly said that Venezuela and Colombia are one country.

Soon came the revelation that Chavez and his accomplices, Ecuador’s president Rafael Correa and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega, had concocted a plan to invade Colombia from three sides. Ecuador would enter from the south, Nicaragua via the Caribbean, and Venezuela from the east. The plan, code-named Guaicaipuro, aimed to quickly encircle Bogota, Colombia’s capital, and topple president Alvaro Uribe’s government. FARC, the main Colombian rebel group was also enlisted for the attack, and would  likely have participated in a new regional government.  It’s been demonstrated beyond any doubt that Venezuela and Ecuador actively supported the FARC, supplying them with arms and important sums of money, as well as guaranteeing them safe passage through their territories.

Guaicaipuro is no longer a viable invasion plan since one of its key participants, Ecuador, has mysteriously done an about face and dropped its hostile policy towards Colombia and is no longer echoing Chavez’ demented rhetoric. I say “mysteriously” but the probable scenario is that president Correa was persuaded to change course by the threat that a mountain of evidence implicating him with the FARC, and possibly other scandals, would be publicized if he didn’t change course. A lot of the evidence in question could have come from the many computers found in FARC encampments captured by Colombian armed forces (with covert US assistance), including one inside Ecuador.

That one plan is dead doesn’t mean that  there isn’t another either already hatched or on the drawing board. Chavez has been making major purchases to refurbish his military, using the country’s abundant petrodollars, and has consistently sought to provoke an incident along Venezuela’s border with Colombia. At one point, he even announced that his country was preparing for war with its neighbor. Chavez poses a grave danger to regional stability and particularly to Colombia, and whether his grip on Venezuela strengthens or weakens, the threat remains very real. It’s very plausible to envision Chavez using his favorite scapegoat, Colombia, to distract public attention from the disastrous policies at home. Inventing a Colombian-American attack against Venezuelan territory sounds ludicrous, but history is full of fabricated wars, and history does tend to repeat itself! Add to that the very eccentric nature of Chavez, the man who told the world he admires Idi Amin Dada, the dictator who terrorized Uganda for 8 years, and Carlos the Jackal, the 1970’s  international terrorist, and has made alliances with rogue state Iran as well as Russia.

As the United States’ most important ally in South America, Colombia feels more secure in the shadow of the world’s largest military, as its own forces are woefully unprepared for a full scale armed conflict. One of the most dissuasive tactics used by Colombia against its belligerent neighbor has been the recent treaty with the USA, authorizing them to use seven military bases deep inside its territory. Recently, a leak revealed the treaty as a subterfuge which Colombia demanded from Washington in order to create the illusion of a tight military association. The reality is that should Venezuela do the unthinkable and invade Colombian soil, it is by no means certain that US troops would intervene directly. The US is busy with two costly and unpopular conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as wrestling with the aftermath of the worst recession in 60 years,  thus starting another war would probably not win many votes. This doesn’t preclude a “remote control”  intervention via the air and sea, a military policy that was used effectively during the Clinton administration.

Hugo Chavez isn’t going away and he’s ready to destroy his country and  the entire region as well before ceding any power. US congress voting to place Venezuela on the list of states sponsoring terrorism was a necessary and correct move, but it won’t do much to change history: the US may eventually have no choice but to launch a full scale war in its backyard if this strongman isn’t stopped soon. The sense we have  here, within Colombia, is one of a clear and present danger.

Tom is a Canadian who makes his home in Medellin, Colombia. He keeps busy as an internet consultant, writer and cartoonist. His hobby has long been traveling, and maintaining his two blogs about the expat lifestyle: Permatourist and O Colombia.
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